• FLORIDA CAPITAL REALTY | 786-287-3241

$ 120000 to $ 55000000

$ 120000 to $ 55000000

We found 0 results. View results
Your search results

Is there a drop-off in home sales during a presidential election year?

Posted by Rafael Jarauta PA on September 2, 2020
0

Presidential Election.

The year 2020 will be remembered as one of the most challenging times of our lives. A worldwide pandemic, a recession causing historic unemployment, and a level of social unrest perhaps never seen before have all changed the way we live. Only the real estate market seems to be unaffected, as a new forecast projects there may be more homes purchased this year than last year.

As we come to the end of this tumultuous year, we’re preparing for perhaps the most contentious presidential election of the century. Today, it’s important to look at the impact past presidential election years have had on the real estate market.

Is there a drop-off in home sales during a presidential election year?

BTIG, a research and analysis company, looked at new home sales from 1963 through 2019 in their report titled One House, Two House, Red House, Blue House. They noted that in non-presidential years, there is a -9.8% decrease in November compared to October. This is the normal seasonality of the market, with a slowdown in activity that’s usually seen in fall and winter.

However, it also revealed that in presidential election years, the typical drop increases to -15%. The report explains why:

“This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty.”

Are those sales lost forever?

No. BTIG determined:

“This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”

In a separate study done by Meyers Research & Zonda, Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, agrees that those purchases are just delayed until after the election:

“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year.”

Will it matter who is elected?

To some degree, but not in the overall number of home sales. As mentioned above, consumer confidence plays a significant role in a family’s desire to buy a home. How may consumer confidence impact the housing market post-election? The BTIG report covered that as well:

“A change in administration might benefit trailing blue county housing dynamics. The re-election of President Trump could continue to propel red county outperformance.”

Again, overall sales should not be impacted in a significant way.

Bottom Line

If mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the economy continues to recover, and unemployment continues to decrease, the real estate market should remain strong up to and past the election.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Rafael Jarauta, Rafael Jarauta, PA or RealtyWonders.com, does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Rafael Jarauta, Rafael Jarauta, PA or RealtyWonders.com will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

La información contenida y opiniones expresadas en este artículo no tienen la intención de ser interpretadas como asesoramiento en materia de inversión. Rafael Jarauta, Rafael Jarauta PA o RealtyWonders.com no tienen ni garantías de la información o integridad de la información u opiniones aquí contenidas. Usted debe siempre realizar su propia investigación y su debida diligencia y obtener asesoramiento profesional antes de hacer o tomar una decisión de inversión. Rafael Jarauta, Rafael Jarauta PA o RealtyWonders.com no son ni seran responsables por ningun dano o perjuicio relacionado con la información u opiniones contenidas en este sitio web.

  • $ 120000 to $ 55000000

    $ 120000 to $ 55000000

Compare Listings